By John Abdalla —
Israel was playing chess, Somaliland, checkers, and they both win.
A day after Christmas, Israel recognized Somaliland’s independence after the northwestern breakoff nation fought 30 years to separate from it trouble-plagued, terrorist-riven southern half that neglects and oppresses the northern half.
King me! said Somaliland. Israel is the first UN member to do so. In so doing, Israel gained another signer to the peace-promoting Abraham Accords and a military base 20 minutes away from Yemen, where the Houthis launched missiles against Tel Aviv.
Israel’s chess move breaks the stranglehold of encirclement that the Axis of Resistance has tightened around Israel: Hezbollah to the north in Syria and Lebanon, Iraq and Iran to the east, the Houthis to the south. Now, Israel begins to encircle the circlers. Not checkmate, but check.
Israel’s base is near the Berbera Airport on the Gulf of Aden near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait and includes twelve underground hangars for fighter jets and drones, a deep-water port and hardened aircraft shelters capable of withstanding missile attacks.
The Houthis also attacked commercial shipping passing its strait, accusing them of propping up Israel with trade. The rogue attacks forced shippers to make the long and expensive journey around the southern tip of Africa instead of the shorter route through the Suez Canal. Trump bombed the Houthis for seven weeks last spring/summer (300 raids) until they abandoned their campaign of terror against commercial shipping.
As expected, a number of anti-Israel nations condemned Israel’s unilateral decision to recognize Somaliland on Dec. 26 (Merry Christmas!). The irony is that Turkey, Egypt, Arab League states, most African nations who condemned Israel’s “destabilizing” action, have themselves destabilized Israel by recognizing Palestinian statehood.
President Trump is looking at leading the United States into possibly recognizing Somaliland, a move that will make all but inevitable that the rest of the world will follow suit at a time when Somalians are falling into disgrace in America embroiled in $18B welfare fraud scandal in Minnesota.
This is where chess-playing comes. By recognizing Palestinian statehood, these anti-Israel nations green-lighted Israel doing the same in their backyard. They made a move, Israel converted into its own advantage.
Somaliland won its independence from Britain in June 1960 and almost immediately joined to Somalia (which won its independence from Italy) to the south because of a common sense of belonging.
“While the decision was driven by a shared sense of Somali nationalism, the union was profoundly unequal,” explains Professor James Ker-Lindsey of the London School of Economics and Political Science. “Political power and economic resources were concentrated in the south, in the capitol, Mogadishu, while the northern regions were increasingly marginalized.”
The sense of alienation grew when dictator Mohammed Siad Barre brutally repressed the north. When he was ousted, Somaliland took advantage of the civil war spiral in the south to declare its independence.
Somaliland created its own constitution forming a democracy, ran elections, formed and army and did all the other nation state types of things.
“Somaliland can be seen as an island of stability in a deeply troubled region,” Ker-Lindsey says.
But lacking international recognition made international finance very difficult. Taiwan had recognized Somaliland, but no one else progressed beyond informal partnerships — until now.
After Israel’s catalyzing move, expect recognition to come from the United Arab Emirates, which also has a base in Somaliland, and Ethiopia, which needs access to the sea and is otherwise landlocked. The United States could follow suit.
