By Abdul Masih —
Feared from outside, the great economic giant known as China is actually teetering on the brink of a collapse similar to the Soviet Union, an analyst says.
“China looks unstoppable — until you compare it to the Soviet Union’s last, glittering decades,” says Elvira Bary, who has studied authoritarian regimes since she was born in the USSR.
Authoritarian regimes fail because of inherent flaws. They must constantly shore up their legitimacy, hence the lies-filled propaganda. They reward loyalty, not brains. When their economics stagnant, they start a war to appear to be strong and successful.
The Soviet Union folded in 1991, as its economy floundered, reform backfired and political instability brought disintegration. It shed the 15 nations it had taken over during the post-WW2 expansion, including Ukraine, and puppet regimes like Poland and East Germany severed ties.
According to Bary, here’s the roadmap to failure — from the Soviet Union’s history and now being followed by China:
- The legitimacy trap – Authoritarian regimes must constantly prove they must be obeyed. “He must constantly prove that his power is justified,” Bary says.
- Mirage numbers – Since party officials are rewarded by results in each district, they report fictitious production numbers. “In Liaoning, one of China’s rustbelt provinces, officials admitted that fiscal data had been falsified for years,” Bary says. “The National Bureau of Statistics downgraded the province’s GDP by 20%.” (Related: data faked on military technology and population collapse).
- Loyalty over brains – “Authoritarian rulers want SAFE competence — that does not challenge them and knows when to shut up,” Bary says.
- Massive building projects – “Megaprojects look impressive and make rulers look leaders of destiny, progress and history,” Bary says. Montenegro financed a fancy highway with Chinese money; it became “a highway to nowhere,” Reuters said.
- Foreign partners – “They look for partners and clients among weaker regimes. It offers money, infrastructure, cheap credit, military help. Then it presents this network as proof that history is shifting in its favor,” Bary says.
- Offshore lifeboats – Regimes move their family and riches out of the country to prepare for the event they lose power. When that happens, they no longer wish to prosper the country they lead but to profit from it as much as possible before exiting. (Related: Iran wired out money.)
- Last resorts – If the economy stagnates and people begin to protest declining living standards, authoritarian leaders start wars to gin up patriotism and convince citizens they need to back the leader. Just look at China’s continual hounding of Taiwan.
“War is a powerful way to gain legitimacy,” Bary says. “It’s their last resort when all the rest have failed.”
