Bastille Days Iranian-style

By Kirollos Abdalla —

Iranians are storming police stations across the country, as cops, holed up inside, fire upon the unarmed civilians in emerging evidence that the regime is in its final days.

What has kept Iranians from overthrowing the repressive government before boils down to a four-letter word: guns. Only the authorities have guns. What usually happens when the people rise up is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps cracks down with a massacre and people go home afraid.

This time is different. With its military capabilities demolished after Israel air raids in June AND with no water and collapsed banking, Iran stands a historic crossroads.

The tipping point came last night when President Donald Trump threatened intervention if the regime resorts to its usual shooting of unarmed civilians on Day 6 of the nationwide protests.

IRGC generals responded with saber-rattling (only there’s no saber in the sheath). “The American people should know–Trump started this adventurism. They should be mindful of their soldiers’ safety,” posted on X in a message that appeared to be translated by ChatGPT Ali Larijani, Secretary of Supreme National Security Council.

Guns were the X factor standing in the way of the people’s will. But with Trump’s threats (and he’s shown repeatedly that his bite is louder than his bark), the people can confidently rise and wrest control. Israeli and U.S. warplanes can bomb sites where IRGC members are hidden.

Supreme Leader Ali Khameni has fled to the West of the country.

UK journalist Mahyar Tousi says Mossad and CIA agents have boots on the ground in Iran helping the people to impose their will upon their Islamism-guided Shi’ite draconian leaders.

What happens next? Likely, IRGC leadership will evacuate to Russia, where their dictators-loving dictator Vladimir Putin will welcome them with open arms, as he did to 24-year dictator of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, who dropped poison gas bombs on his enemies.

What should we expect to see? Exiled Reza Pahlavi, the legitimate heir to the throne, will fly to Iran to assume control of the country and oversee his vision to transition to the nation to a peace-loving democracy. His flight will be an exact parallel to Ruhollah Khomeini, who flew from France on Feb. 1, 1979 to lead the Iranian Revolution and become the first supreme leader.

What don’t we know? How much network has Reza Pahlavi built secretly to assist his incoming administration? How much military personnel and leaders have pledged allegiance to him to provide the protection and stability necessary to guide Iran back to prosperity and international stability?

What could go wrong? Western countries always underestimate the patience and the fervor of Islamists, who believe they are guided and favored by Allah and are willing to die for Allah because they’ll go to Paradise for doing jihad.

Could a Sunni Islam force blitzkrieg the leadership vacuum as Ahmed al-Sharaa did in Syria? The likelihood might be low for two reasons:

1) the lack of neighboring support (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey and Iraq border Iran and either are tied up with their own struggles right now or don’t seem to be eyeing the opportunity in Iran, as Turkey was in Syria).

2) Iran is predominantly Shi’ite, which hates Sunni almost as much as Islamists hate Jews and Christians. Moreover, Islam has been hemorrhaging actually believing followers as people are fed up with stupid rules and a leadership more concerned with provoking international stability than taking care of water shortages.

The United States has a terrible record at building democracies in the region. It tried and failed in Iraq and dismally failed in Afghanistan after trying for 20 years. The main reason for this is because Westerners always fail to understand the profound influence of radical Islam.

In Iraq, the U.S. failure brought the sobering realization that it should have left Saddam Hussein alone. As bad as he was, he was better than what we have now.

Trump has brought the tipping point: a way for the Iranian people to form the government they want. But what happens afterwards will be critical. France‘s Bastille Day is still celebrated, but the aftermath of chaos led to Napoleon Bonaparte conquering Europe and bringing widespread disaster.

Sources: Tousi T.V., others.